Whether you make it at home or order it from your local café, chances are you’ve noticed the price of coffee going up.

Maybe your flat white now costs more than $5, or you’ve seen a jump in supermarket beans or online from specialty roasters. Prices are rising across the board.

We want to help make sense of what’s happening in the industry, why prices are increasing, and what that means for your daily brew. We’re here to explain why coffee prices are increasing, what’s happening behind the scenes, and why supporting your local café or roaster still matters more than ever.

Coffee at $12 a cup? Not so fast.

There’s been a lot of chatter in the media about the price of coffee surging, with some headlines suggesting it could hit $10 or even $12 a cup. Understandably, that’s sparked concern for both café owners and coffee lovers. So we want to set the record straight.

To put it simply: no, your regular coffee isn’t about to cost $12… 

Not now, and not anytime soon (at least in Australia).

Unless you’re ordering a jumbo-size coffee with multiple add-ons (think extra shots, alternative milk, and flavoured syrups) it’s still going to be a stretch to reach that price.

Could we see those kinds of prices one day? If the cost of raw beans continues to climb at the current pace, then yes.. it’s possible we could be looking at that level one day, but not in the near future. 

Still a bargain by global standards

Australians enjoy some of the highest-quality specialty coffee globally, often at more affordable prices than in other major cities. In 2025, the average small flat white in Australia is approximately $4.78, compared to $6.31 in the UK and $7.41 in the US.

And if you’ve travelled to cities like New York, Singapore or Dubai, you’ll know just how lucky we are when it comes to both quality and price. A similar cup can easily set you back anywhere between $8 to $11.

Bringing Australian coffee prices more in line with international benchmarks is part of ensuring the sustainability of our café culture. As operating costs rise and margins tighten, it’s important that prices reflect the value of what’s in the cup.

So, what’s driving the price hike?

From crop to cup, nearly every stage in the coffee journey has become more expensive in recent years. 

Here’s a clear breakdown as to why:

1. Climate change in coffee-growing regions
   

   Brazil and Vietnam, which together produce over half of the world’s coffee, have faced extreme weather conditions in recent years. Brazil is recovering from its worst drought in 70 years, while Vietnam has experienced both drought and severe flooding. These conditions have significantly impacted harvest yields, pushing arabica and robusta coffee bean prices to record highs.

2. Increased costs for roasters
   

   Australian roasters like us are now paying significantly more for green beans than we were in 2021. In just the first half of 2025, costs have climbed by approximately 35% for raw beans, and there are no signs of this decreasing. Freight, labour, packaging and energy expenses have all increased too, adding to the overall cost of production. For roasters committed to quality, these rising costs inevitably flow through to the final cup.

3. Global supply chain disruptions
   

   The logistics of getting coffee from farm to roastery have become far more complicated. Ongoing shipping delays, port congestion, fuel price hikes and limited container availability are causing bottlenecks across the supply chain. These delays not only slow things down but also drive up costs, affecting everyone from growers to importers to cafés to the end consumer.

4. Trade and tariff pressures
   

   On top of logistical challenges, international trade policies are adding another layer of complexity. Tariffs on imports and exports, fluctuating exchange rates and political tensions between countries all impact the cost of bringing coffee into Australia. These issues are often outside the control of individual businesses, but they contribute significantly to the final price of your coffee.

5. Labour shortages in coffee-producing regions
   

   Labour shortages in key coffee-producing countries have led to lower productivity and higher production costs. As farms struggle to find and retain workers, this adds further pressure to already constrained supply chains and ultimately affects pricing.

6. Market volatility and a strong US dollar
   

   Coffee is a globally traded commodity, so prices are heavily influenced by economic markets and currency movements. As the US dollar strengthens, importing green beans becomes more expensive for Australian roasters, since beans are traded in USD. This means we pay more, even before roasting begins. Add to that the continued impact of Brazil’s drought (which fuels speculation in global coffee markets) and prices can spike based on supply fears alone.

Cafés are feeling the pressure too

There are more than 27,000 cafés and coffee shops across Australia, employing over 139,000 people and contributing to a $14 billion industry. For many of these businesses, profit margins are tight. When the wholesale price of beans increases, cafés often have no choice but to raise their prices to stay afloat.

If you’ve noticed prices going up at your favourite café, it’s worth knowing those increases often reflect rising costs across the board. These aren’t easy decisions for small businesses to make, and your support goes a long way. That increase you see at the till isn’t about greed, it’s about survival in a high-pressure industry. 

Supporting your local means more than grabbing a coffee; it helps keep doors open, jobs secure, and the heart of Australia’s café culture alive.

So, what does all of this mean for coffee lovers?

More Aussies are turning to at-home brewing as a way to manage rising costs, and we love seeing people explore flavour, try new gear, and enjoy specialty coffee in their own space. But there’s still something special about a coffee made by your local barista. Whether it’s part of your daily routine or an occasional treat, those café visits support a much wider network of people (from growers and exporters to roasters and hospitality teams).

Our advice?

Do both. Brew at home with quality beans. And when you can, keep supporting the local cafés you love. 

Just know that you are supporting passionate people who put real care into the coffee you love, whether it’s in your kitchen or across the counter.

Our promise to you

As a local specialty coffee roaster, we’re committed to sourcing and roasting coffee with integrity and transparency. 

Yes, prices across the industry are changing. But we’re not here to inflate them without cause. We believe in fair pricing that reflects the real value of a quality product.

Because at the end of the day, our goal is simple: to keep making great coffee, honestly and sustainably, for the community that supports us.